Is Brad Penny’s Hot Start Legit?

03May10

Let’s just cut straight to the chase. Brad Penny, the man who even the most optimistic Cardinal fans saw as a decent third starter, just had a fanastic April, posting an ERA of 1.56 and an FIP of 2.74. If he keeps this up, the Cardinals could put up a case for the best rotation in baseball. The Buttload of Money Dollar Question, though, is will he?

He’s obviously due for a regression, of course. Allowing 0 home runs and stranding 83% of baserunners is simply not sustainable. Although his ERA is going to take a bit of a jump when those numbers approach the mean, there are signs that he will still be able to put up some great numbers for a third starter. And of course, the man we have to thank for this career rejuvenation is Dave Duncan.

Thanks to Duncan’s philosophy, Penny’s K/9 and BB/9 are both down. His BB/9 has taken a bigger hit, though, and his K/BB ratio is the highest it’s been since 2006. What’s even more significant, though, is Penny’s groundball rate. 52.8% of balls put into play are grounders, which is his career high.

So it’s the usual Duncan story, right? Pitcher sacrifices fastball velocity for more control and movement and watches the groundballs flow like wine. Actually, this isn’t the case. Penny’s average fastball velocity is at 93.8 MPH, which is actually a little faster than his career average. The key is he’s throwing it less. A lot less. The 20% less than his career kind of less. What’s happened is that he’s now throwing a split-finger 29.8% of the time instead of his career’s 2.5%. And it’s paying huge dividends. For every 100 splitters thrown, it’s 4.48 runs better than the league average. That’s good for the best splitter in the majors.

So yeah, after all the homeruns and the stranded runners catch up with him, Penny can still be very good if his splitter stays with him.

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